Re: 60 day waiting period

[Simon Higgs <simon@higgs.com>]

At 2:00 AM -0600 1/12/97, Jerry Harder wrote:

> For a example, with numbers that are illustrative only:
>
> 750,000 domain names to be issued
>
> .01 (1 in 100 domain names), proportion that results in challenges or
>law suits
>
> 1, proportion of challenges and suits that can be avoided with
>adoption of 60 day waiting period
>
> $1,000,000 social benefit per law suit or challenge avoided
>
> Multiplying 750,000 * .01 * 1 * $1,000,000 = $7,500,000,000 in social
>benefits
>
> Dividing by 750,000 (number of domain names) gives a breakeven social
>benefit of $10,000 per domain name.
>
> If the costs of the 60 day waiting period are greater than $10,000
>per domain name, then the policy should be rejected. Otherwise, adopt
>the policy and the difference between the actual cost and the
>breakeven cost is the average social benefit per domain name.
>
> (The social cost is approximately the revenues that would be gained
>without the 60 day waiting period less any expenditures not made due
>to the policy.)
>
> Obviously some of the numbers in the model are not realistic, but the
>members of this list are well positioned to give us much better
>numbers.
>

On any web development project by a trademark holder (this policy can
ONLY benefit a trademark holder if at all), the preparation during a 60
day wait is going to exceed $10,000.

T1 ($1500 - $3000 per month)               = $3000 - $6000
Graphics @ $50 ph for two weeks            = $4000
Webmaster/Sys Admin @ $50,000 pa           = $8333
HTML Editor @ $30 ph for for eight weeks   = $9600

Should the domain name be disputed beyond the 60 days, these figures
will increase proportionately.

This is WITHOUT loss of earnings. Name some web sites that are bringing
in the kind of revenue that will cover these figures plus $10,000. You
need $25,000 a month income to cover this. Actually, try to name
750,000 domains bringing in that kind of money. :)

And how do you factor in intangibles?

Sorry, I'd buy a financial reason if the model made sense. Given that
very FEW sites are profitable, (let alone in their first 60 days - most
are still reinvesting income to facilitate growth), and that the web is
still not a mature industry, I don't believe it's possible or even
realistic to try to use this model.


Regards,

Simon

--
If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you.