Fallacy of hindsight again (was something else)

[Carl Oppedahl <carl@oppedahl.com>]

At 04:45 AM 01/14/97 -0500, Leo Smith wrote:

>Dave Crocker writes:

>>"The purpose of the 60-wait is to increase the stability of the name
>>after the wait.

>>	In effect, it is an attempt to move all the challenges into an
>>initial period, before the applicant has invested heavily or gained any
>>momentum behind the name.  Carl O's phrase "stable URLs" is an entirely
>.reasonable example of the desired benefit.  Separate from agreeing on the
>>likely benefit, let us please at least try to be accurate in defining the
>>intent."

>Leo Smith asks...

>The use of a 60 day wait as a remedy to enhance the stability of URLs needs
>rethinking.

>The first step is to analyze the perceived benefits...

>Without the wait, what would happen, and with the wait what would happen?

>First, let's divide the entire universe of URLs into two groups: Those URLs
>that will never encounter a trademark challenge, and those URLs that end up
>in a trademark dispute. 

Yes, somehow we know *ahead of time* which ones didn't encounter a
trademark challenge?  Or are we waiting twenty years and looking back?

>Without the wait, the stability of the group of
>URLs defined as those that will never receive a challenge from a trademark
>rights holder remains 100% stable. 

Patient:  Doc, what are the chances I will survive this operation?

Doc:  If you are still alive when the operation is over, the chances are 100%

>Using .com for analysis, this means that
>roughly 796,000 out of 800,000 URLs are 100% stable. Granted, we don't know
>which ones they are specifically, but they do exist as stable URLs.

We don't know ahead of time which patients will survive the operation, but
those patients do exist as patients who are operation-survivors.

>If the wait were to cut the problem in half, stability would be
>strengthened in an additional 2,000 URLs. Using hindsight, the benefit of
>enhanced stability comes to 2,000 out of 800,000 URLs, or from a percentage
>basis, to one quarter of one percent of the total URLs. 
>Is the above result worth  a major imposition on 800,000 URLs?

Sorry, but you have not overcome the fallacy of hindsight.

The beneficiaries of the waiting period are not only the (estimated by you)
4,000 who would have had trademark challenges, but also the other 796,000
who (we can later say in hindsight) did not.  All of them turn out to have
had enhanced stability.